November 2, 1948: "Dewey Defeats Truman"
Background
The 1948 United States presidential election was held on November 2, 1948. The Democratic incumbent, Harry S. Truman, defeated the Republican nominee, Thomas E. Dewey, the 44th Governor of New York.
The Pre-Election Polls and Forecasts
In the months leading up to the election, public opinion polls showed Dewey leading Truman by a wide margin. Polls conducted by Gallup, the University of Michigan, and other reputable organizations consistently predicted a Dewey victory.
The Chicago Tribune's Famous Blunder
One of the most infamous examples of inaccurate polling was the front-page headline of the Chicago Tribune on November 3, 1948: "Dewey Defeats Truman." The newspaper had printed the headline prematurely based on the early returns, which initially showed Dewey in the lead. However, as more votes were counted, Truman's lead became clear, and the Tribune's headline became a symbol of the unexpected outcome of the election.
Factors Contributing to Truman's Victory
Despite the pre-election polls, Truman ultimately won the election due to several factors, including:
- Truman's effective campaign strategy: Truman's "Give 'em hell, Harry" campaign focused on his accomplishments during his presidency, his commitment to the New Deal, and his opposition to Republican policies.
- Dewey's perceived elitism: Dewey's aloof and patrician demeanor did not resonate with many voters, who saw him as out of touch with their concerns.
- The Dixiecrat split: Southern Democrats formed the States' Rights Democratic Party, known as the Dixiecrats, and nominated Strom Thurmond for president. This split weakened the Democratic vote but likely helped Truman win by depriving Dewey of Southern support.
- Third-party candidates: Henry A. Wallace, the Progressive Party candidate, and Norman Thomas, the Socialist Party candidate, drew votes away from Dewey in some areas.
Implications of Truman's Victory
Truman's victory upset the pundits and surprised the nation. It had a significant impact on American politics and the country's future:
- Revived the Democratic Party: Truman's victory revitalized the Democratic Party, which had been on the decline after the Roosevelt era.
- Ended Republican dominance: Truman's victory marked the end of a 16-year Republican hold on the White House.
- Influenced the Cold War: Truman's victory allowed him to continue his policies of containment and support for Western Europe against the Soviet Union.
Conclusion
The 1948 presidential election was a pivotal moment in American history and Truman's victory is still remembered as one of the greatest upsets in political history. The election highlighted the importance of effective campaigning, the influence of public opinion polls, and the impact of third-party candidates.
